The Automotive Sector towards Electric

The transition of the automotive sector towards alternative powertrains to fossil fuels is accelerating. In the last two years, electric and hybrid cars have gained increasing market share. Hydrogen, on the other hand, remains in a more experimental but promising phase in some areas. The year 2024 was a record year for electric car sales worldwide. Just over 10.9 million battery electric vehicles (BEVs) were sold globally, with a growth of +14% compared to 2023. This means that over 12% of new cars sold worldwide are fully electric, an increase from 10.7% the previous year.

If we also include plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), the figure is even higher. The push is largely driven by China, the largest EV market. More than half of the global demand for electric cars is concentrated here. Chinese automakers like BYD, Geely (which owns brands like Volvo and Polestar), and NIO are growing exponentially, thanks to dozens of new competitive electric models. EV registrations have also increased in the United States and Europe, although at a slower pace than in China. A report indicates that in the first half of 2024, global sales of electric vehicles (BEV+PHEV) rose by 20% compared to the previous year.

Automotive Trends

This trend is set to continue: stricter environmental regulations and economic incentives are pushing towards the gradual abandonment of internal combustion engines. Over 50 countries (and some US states) have announced the end of sales of gasoline/diesel cars by 2030-2040, while the European Union has confirmed the phase-out by 2035 for non-zero-emission cars. Consequently, traditional manufacturers are launching more and more electric models: SUVs, sedans, and even battery city cars now enrich the lists of all major brands.

Range and Cost of Electric Vehicles

The average range continues to grow (thanks to larger and more energy-dense batteries), alleviating range anxiety. Many 2024 models exceed 400-500 km of real range on a single charge. At the same time, the network of fast and home public charging is expanding, making the daily use of an EV more practical. A challenge that remains is the cost. Despite a drop of about 50% in battery cell prices in recent years, electric cars are still on average more expensive than their gasoline counterparts. However, the gap is narrowing, and some compact electric models are starting to have affordable prices. Especially considering the lower operating costs (electricity vs fuel, less maintenance).

In parallel with the rise of electric cars, hybrid cars continue to spread, particularly mild hybrids and full hybrids. These solutions combine an internal combustion engine and an electric motor, offering a compromise in terms of reducing consumption and emissions without entirely relying on charging stations. Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), rechargeable at the plug, have also found their niche. Many mid-to-high-end SUVs offer PHEV versions capable of 50-80 km in pure electric mode, ideal for daily commuting, with the advantage of having a gasoline engine for long trips without charging stops.

Hydrogen between Experimentation and Future

On the front of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs), progress is slower but continuous. Models like the Toyota Mirai and the Hyundai Nexo currently represent the few hydrogen cars available for private customers, with sales mainly limited to Japan, California, and a few European countries equipped with H₂ refueling stations. In 2024, the spread of hydrogen in the automotive sector remains minimal (in the order of a few tens of thousands of units worldwide), but interest remains high, especially for heavy and long-range transport applications, where hydrogen could offer high ranges and rapid refueling.

The Future of Automotive between Batteries and Hydrogen

In the meantime, investments are being made in infrastructure and pilot projects. For example, in Europe, funds have been allocated for green hydrogen stations and demonstration fleets of fuel cell buses and trucks. Fuel cell technology is improving in efficiency and costs, but it faces challenges such as the sustainable production of hydrogen (which must be “green,” derived from renewable sources) and the safety/logistics of storage. It is widely believed that in the short term, battery electric will remain the dominant solution for zero-emission mobility. Hydrogen, on the other hand, will find space mainly in specific sectors (commercial vehicles, maritime transport, aviation, and as energy storage). The evolution must still be monitored: if the promises of low-cost, high-energy-density hydrogen are realized, we could see more FCEV models on the market towards the end of the decade.

(image source: Freepik)